CA Platense — Boca Juniors: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.8% |
| 12 | 67.2% | |
| X2 | 72.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.7% / 61.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 30.5% / 69.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.4% / 98.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Platense and Boca Juniors appear evenly matched heading into their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available assessment gives no clear overall advantage to either side, while pointing toward a controlled contest in which defensive organisation may carry particular weight.
A low-scoring match is expected, with a clean sheet considered likely. The most plausible scorelines are 0:0, 0:1 and 1:1, suggesting limited attacking separation and a narrow margin between the teams. Overall, the outlook favours a cautious game, with the balance of play potentially remaining unresolved for long periods.
What matters before kick-off
1-1 draw in Clausura Matchday 5
The Torneo Clausura 2026 Matchday 5 encounter between CA Platense and Boca Juniors at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López ended in a 1-1 draw. Nicolás Retamar scored for Platense before Miguel Merentiel equalized for Boca Juniors.
Boca Juniors injury concerns during the match
Boca Juniors players Leandro Paredes, Marco Pellegrino, and Leandro Lozano were forced off with physical discomfort during the match against CA Platense.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.