CA Lanus — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.1% |
| 12 | 66.9% | |
| X2 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.4% / 98.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Lanus hold a slight edge over CA Independiente Avellaneda in what looks set to be a controlled and low-scoring encounter. The available indicators point toward a cautious match, with limited attacking output expected from both sides. CA Lanus are marginally better placed in the overall assessment, but the gap is not large enough to rule out a balanced contest.
A clean sheet appears likely, which further supports the expectation of a tight game decided by small details. The most plausible scorelines are 0:0, 1:0 and 1:1, all suggesting that defensive organisation could be more influential than sustained attacking pressure. CA Lanus may have the better chance of edging the result, while a draw remains a realistic alternative if CA Independiente Avellaneda can maintain their structure and limit opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Independiente Managerial Departure
Independiente head coach Gustavo Quinteros left his position following a 4-0 defeat against Atletico Tucuman in the Copa Argentina. Reserve coaches Carlos Matheu and Eduardo Tuzzio were appointed as interim managers for the match against Lanus.
Recent League Results
Lanus head into the fixture following a 3-0 victory against Talleres in the previous round of the Clausura. Independiente arrive after consecutive 1-0 league defeats to Velez and Platense.
No Away Fans Allowed
Lanus cancelled ticket sales for visiting Independiente supporters at La Fortaleza. The decision was made following a request from the visiting club's board amid Independiente's poor run of form.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.