CA Independiente Avellaneda — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 31.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.5% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.1% / 56.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Rosario Central 1:3
- 02.05.2026 away San Lorenzo 2:1
- 24.04.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:2
- 18.04.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.07.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 1:0
- 04.05.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 1:1
- 26.04.2026 home Instituto 1:1
- 18.04.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 3:2
- 12.04.2026 home San Lorenzo 0:0
This season: CA Independiente Avellaneda at home vs Newell's Old Boys away
| Metric | CA Independiente Avellaneda · at home | Newell's Old Boys · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–1 | 2–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.88 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.13 | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.01.2026 Newell's Old Boys 1:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 26.11.2024 Newell's Old Boys 2:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 12.07.2023 CA Independiente Avellaneda 0:2 Newell's Old Boys
- 25.09.2022 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
- 31.10.2021 Newell's Old Boys 1:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 05.03.2021 Newell's Old Boys 1:2 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a clear advantage over Newell's Old Boys, although the assessment carries moderate confidence rather than certainty. The available outlook points toward a controlled home performance, with CA Independiente Avellaneda more likely to dictate the match and limit the visitors' opportunities. The scoring profile suggests a game with a moderate number of goals rather than an open contest.
Newell's Old Boys may need to remain compact and disciplined, as the forecast favours a clean sheet for the hosts. That makes the visitors' ability to create sustained attacking pressure particularly important, while CA Independiente Avellaneda can focus on efficient possession and careful management of the match. The most plausible scorelines are 1-0 and 2-0, with 1-1 also representing a possible alternative if Newell's Old Boys can resist the home side's pressure and take one of their limited chances.
What matters before kick-off
Midfield injury issues for Newell's Old Boys
Newell's Old Boys head coach Frank Darío Kudelka faces midfield selection issues as Jerónimo Gómez Mattar, Rodrigo Herrera, and Marcelo Esponda have all been ruled out due to injury.
Both teams started Clausura 2026 with wins
Both teams enter round two following opening victories in the Clausura: Independiente secured a 2-0 away win against Estudiantes, while Newell's Old Boys defeated Talleres 1-0 at home.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.