CA Independiente Avellaneda — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 31.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.6% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.4% / 56.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.3% / 57.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.4% / 96.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 5.75 → now 5.50 |
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda have a slight edge over Newell's Old Boys in this Primera LPF Clausura meeting, although the low confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The available outlook favours the hosts, but not strongly enough to treat the match as one-sided. Home advantage may be important, particularly in a game where small moments could shape the outcome.
The scoring profile suggests a medium-scoring match, with 1-0 and 2-0 among the more plausible scorelines, while 1-1 also reflects the uncertainty around the fixture. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to assess, so that aspect remains finely balanced. Independiente may look to control the match and create the clearer opportunities, while Newell's Old Boys should remain competitive if they can keep the game tight. Overall, the hosts enter with a narrow analytical advantage, but the draw remains a credible possibility.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.