CA Aldosivi — Atletico Tucuman: Win probabilities, 21.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.3% |
| 12 | 67.4% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.4% / 62.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.4% / 97.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.30 → now 3.50 |
| W2 | was 2.45 → now 2.35 |
Match preview
CA Aldosivi host Atletico Tucuman in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the available assessment pointing to a closely balanced contest. Confidence is moderate, and neither side is given a clear overall advantage. The market signal leans toward Atletico Tucuman avoiding defeat, but the even-match profile means a draw remains a central possibility rather than a secondary outcome.
The expected character of the match is cautious and low-scoring. The leading scorelines are 1:1, 0:0, and 0:1, all of which suggest limited attacking separation. Whether both teams score is considered finely balanced, so it is difficult to identify a firm pattern in that area. CA Aldosivi may look to use home advantage, while Atletico Tucuman’s statistical profile supports a disciplined approach aimed at keeping the game close. Overall, this points to a match likely to be decided by small margins, with a draw or a narrow result for Atletico Tucuman the most consistent reading of the available data.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results ahead of matchday 10
CA Aldosivi enter matchday 10 of the Torneo Clausura 2026 coming off a 4-3 defeat against Independiente Rivadavia. Meanwhile, Atletico Tucuman arrive following a 2-1 loss against River Plate.
Venue and standings context
The match takes place at the Estadio Jose Maria Minella in Mar del Plata. Heading into this fixture, Atletico Tucuman had collected 13 points in the Clausura, while CA Aldosivi held 5 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.