Atletico Mineiro MG — Red Bull Bragantino SP: Win probabilities, 03.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.1% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.2% / 19.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.10.2026
Atletico Mineiro MG
7th place · 40 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Fluminense 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sao Paulo 0:2
- 29.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Internacional 0:0
Red Bull Bragantino SP
10th place · 36 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bahia 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Sao Paulo 1:2
- 23.08.2026 home Gremio 1:0
This season: Atletico Mineiro MG at home vs Red Bull Bragantino SP away
| Metric | Atletico Mineiro MG · at home | Red Bull Bragantino SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 7–5–1 | 4–4–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.77 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.23 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.02.2026 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 16.11.2025 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 03.08.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 22.09.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 3:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 12.06.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 25.10.2023 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Mineiro MG have a slight edge over Red Bull Bragantino SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The assessment carries high confidence, while the scoring outlook points toward a medium-scoring contest. The available signals suggest that Atletico Mineiro MG have the stronger overall position, although the margin between the sides is not expected to be decisive.
Both teams are considered likely to score, which supports the possibility of an open contest with opportunities at both ends. The main scorelines identified are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, indicating a relatively balanced range of possible outcomes while giving Atletico Mineiro MG a modest advantage. Overall, the analysis points toward a match in which Atletico Mineiro MG have the stronger side of the assessment, with Red Bull Bragantino SP still capable of making the game competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Postponed Round 21 Brasileirão fixture
The match between Atlético Mineiro and Red Bull Bragantino at Arena MRV is a postponed fixture from Round 21 of the 2026 Brazilian Série A. Prior to kick-off, Atlético sat seventh with 40 points, while Red Bull Bragantino were tenth with 36 points.
International call-ups affect Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro were missing key players for the fixture due to international call-ups during the FIFA window, including midfielder Kevin Castaño for Colombia and Alan Franco for Ecuador.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.