Wrexham AFC — Burnley FC: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.3% |
| 12 | 71.3% | |
| X2 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.9% / 48.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.7% / 70.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Wrexham AFC have a slight edge over Burnley FC in this Championship meeting, with the assessment carrying a high level of confidence. That advantage does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the available scorelines suggest a relatively narrow margin between the teams. A draw remains a credible outcome alongside a home victory.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 standing out as the most likely scorelines. This range reflects a game that could be decided by a single goal, while the 1:1 option underlines the competitive balance between Wrexham AFC and Burnley FC. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so the clearest reading is a home result or draw rather than a decisive victory for either side.
What matters before kick-off
First Meeting in 26 Years
The Championship match between Wrexham and Burnley marks the first fixture between the two clubs in 26 years.
Recent League Form
Ahead of matchday six in the Championship, Wrexham have accumulated six points from five games, while Burnley remain winless in the league at the bottom of the table.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.