Southampton FC — Swansea City: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.7% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 46.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.8% / 42.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.4% / 64.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.09.2026
Southampton FC
8th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Lincoln 1:1
- 01.09.2026 away Birmingham 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Millwall 5:1
- 22.08.2026 home Stoke 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Watford 1:2
Swansea City
1st place · 11 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:0
- 01.09.2026 home Watford 2:0
- 29.08.2026 away Derby 3:0
- 22.08.2026 home Sheffield United 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Stoke 2:1
This season: Southampton FC at home vs Swansea City away
| Metric | Southampton FC · at home | Swansea City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.77 | 1.81 |
| xG against per match | 1.02 | 0.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 18.04.2026 Swansea City 1:2 Southampton FC
- 18.10.2025 Southampton FC 0:0 Swansea City
- 20.01.2024 Swansea City 1:3 Southampton FC
- 26.12.2023 Southampton FC 5:0 Swansea City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Southampton FC go into this Championship fixture with a slight home edge over Swansea City. The available assessment points to a relatively balanced contest, but the hosts have the stronger overall signal, particularly with home advantage included. That suggests Southampton FC may be better placed to control key phases of the match, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive.
The game is projected to produce a medium-scoring pattern, with both Southampton FC and Swansea City likely to find opportunities in front of goal. That combination points towards an open enough match rather than a tightly defensive encounter, while still leaving room for a draw. Southampton FC appear more likely to avoid defeat, but Swansea City remain capable of making the result competitive. The most suitable analytical stance is therefore support for the hosts or a draw, with the final outcome potentially decided by how efficiently each side uses its chances.
What matters before kick-off
Swansea City squad news
Defender Cameron Burgess, forward Ross Stewart, and midfielder Gonçalo Franco remain sidelined through injury. Meanwhile, club captain Ben Cabango returned to action from a heel injury in Swansea's previous fixture.
Championship form and standings
League leaders Swansea City head into round six of the Championship unbeaten in their opening five matches (three wins, two draws). Southampton sit on eight points, looking to extend a four-game unbeaten run in the league.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.