Cardiff City — Stoke City: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.7% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cardiff City have a slight edge over Stoke City in this Championship meeting, with the available assessment favouring the home side while still leaving room for a draw. The 1X signal points towards Cardiff City avoiding defeat, but the matchup does not suggest a wide gap between the teams. Stoke City remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly in an open game.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are likely to find the net. That points to a match with attacking intent and several opportunities at both ends rather than a tightly controlled, low-scoring encounter. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a narrow home advantage alongside a realistic draw possibility. Overall, Cardiff City are the preferred side, but Stoke City should have enough threat to keep the result in doubt.
What matters before kick-off
Isaak Davies ruled out for Cardiff City
Cardiff City forward Isaak Davies was ruled out of the clash against Stoke City after sustaining a hamstring injury in training. Manager Brian Barry-Murphy confirmed the player would be unavailable for the midweek fixture.
Stoke City assessing Bosun Lawal and Sam Gallagher
Stoke City are assessing injuries to Bosun Lawal and Sam Gallagher ahead of their trip to Cardiff City after both went off in their previous match against Charlton Athletic. Manager Mark Robins also indicated he could rotate his squad due to fixture congestion.
Stoke City's away league streak
Heading into the fixture at Cardiff City Stadium, Stoke City have lost each of their last nine away matches in the Football League. This marks their longest away losing run in the league since 1952.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.