Cardiff City — Stoke City: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.7% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.09.2026
Cardiff City
22nd place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Portsmouth 0:2
- 02.09.2026 away QPR 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Sheffield United 2:2
- 22.08.2026 away Derby 2:2
- 17.08.2026 home Wrexham 1:1
Stoke City
14th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Charlton 4:0
- 01.09.2026 home Norwich 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Wolves 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 15.08.2026 home Swansea 1:2
This season: Cardiff City at home vs Stoke City away
| Metric | Cardiff City · at home | Stoke City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 3.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.37 | 0.91 |
| xG against per match | 1.54 | 2.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 11.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2025 Cardiff City 0:1 Stoke City
- 14.12.2024 Stoke City 2:2 Cardiff City
- 24.02.2024 Cardiff City 2:1 Stoke City
- 04.11.2023 Stoke City 0:0 Cardiff City
- 22.04.2023 Cardiff City 1:1 Stoke City
- 10.12.2022 Stoke City 2:2 Cardiff City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cardiff City have a slight edge over Stoke City in this Championship meeting, with the available assessment favouring the home side while still leaving room for a draw. The 1X signal points towards Cardiff City avoiding defeat, but the matchup does not suggest a wide gap between the teams. Stoke City remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly in an open game.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are likely to find the net. That points to a match with attacking intent and several opportunities at both ends rather than a tightly controlled, low-scoring encounter. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a narrow home advantage alongside a realistic draw possibility. Overall, Cardiff City are the preferred side, but Stoke City should have enough threat to keep the result in doubt.
What matters before kick-off
Isaak Davies ruled out for Cardiff City
Cardiff City forward Isaak Davies was ruled out of the clash against Stoke City after sustaining a hamstring injury in training. Manager Brian Barry-Murphy confirmed the player would be unavailable for the midweek fixture.
Stoke City assessing Bosun Lawal and Sam Gallagher
Stoke City are assessing injuries to Bosun Lawal and Sam Gallagher ahead of their trip to Cardiff City after both went off in their previous match against Charlton Athletic. Manager Mark Robins also indicated he could rotate his squad due to fixture congestion.
Stoke City's away league streak
Heading into the fixture at Cardiff City Stadium, Stoke City have lost each of their last nine away matches in the Football League. This marks their longest away losing run in the league since 1952.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.