Norwich City — Birmingham City: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.5% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Norwich City
16th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Sheffield United 3:1
- 01.09.2026 away Stoke 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Burnley 4:1
- 22.08.2026 away Millwall 0:3
- 15.08.2026 home West Brom 1:2
Birmingham City
14th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Wolves 2:2
- 01.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
- 28.08.2026 away Wrexham 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Bristol City 2:2
- 15.08.2026 away Sheffield United 0:0
This season: Norwich City at home vs Birmingham City away
| Metric | Norwich City · at home | Birmingham City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.45 | 1.20 |
| xG against per match | 1.40 | 0.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.02.2026 Norwich City 1:2 Birmingham City
- 22.11.2025 Birmingham City 4:1 Norwich City
- 04.05.2024 Birmingham City 1:0 Norwich City
- 30.09.2023 Norwich City 2:0 Birmingham City
- 21.02.2023 Norwich City 3:1 Birmingham City
- 30.08.2022 Birmingham City 1:2 Norwich City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Norwich City welcome Birmingham City in a Championship meeting on 9 September 2026. The available assessment gives Norwich City a slight edge, with high confidence in that overall direction. The expected character of the match is medium-scoring, suggesting a contest with a reasonable level of attacking involvement rather than an especially open or unusually low-scoring game.
The outlook for both teams scoring is balanced, so there is no clear basis for expecting either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The main projected scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a match that could remain close while still offering Norwich City the stronger home perspective. The broader signal favours Norwich City avoiding defeat, but Birmingham City remain capable of keeping the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Birmingham City Championship squad submission
Birmingham City confirmed their 25-player squad for the Championship season, with Scott Wright and injured Marc Leonard left out of the list.
Birmingham City's unbeaten start to the season
Birmingham City enter the fixture against Norwich City unbeaten in their opening five Championship matches, having recorded one victory and four draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.