Derby County — West Bromwich Albion: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.7% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 72.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.7% / 72.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.4% / 94.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Derby County host West Bromwich Albion in a Championship fixture that points towards a closely contested match, with a slight edge for the visitors. The overall assessment favours West Bromwich Albion, although the balance is not so one-sided that Derby County can be discounted. A measured approach from both sides could be important, as the projected scoring level suggests a match with a moderate number of goals rather than an especially open contest.
The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the game may be decided by small moments rather than sustained dominance. Derby County should have opportunities to make the home advantage count, while West Bromwich Albion appear better placed to avoid defeat and potentially claim a narrow win. The most plausible patterns include a draw with goals or a controlled away success, with the visitors’ advantage reflected more in consistency of outcome than in an expectation of a high-scoring match.
What matters before kick-off
Rhian Brewster Out due to Concussion Protocol
Derby County forward Rhian Brewster will miss the clash against West Bromwich Albion following concussion protocols after being forced off in the match against West Ham.
John Eustace Speaks Ahead of West Brom Encounter
Derby County head coach John Eustace stated that his team is looking forward to returning to Pride Park for the midweek match against West Bromwich Albion after playing back-to-back away fixtures.
Derby's Unbeaten Streak Against West Brom
Derby County remain unbeaten in their last eight head-to-head matches against West Bromwich Albion across all competitions, claiming five victories in regulation time.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.