Derby County — West Bromwich Albion: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.7% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 72.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.7% / 72.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.4% / 94.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Derby County
21st place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 01.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Swansea 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Cardiff 2:2
- 15.08.2026 away Charlton 1:2
West Bromwich Albion
7th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Watford 1:0
- 02.09.2026 home Charlton 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Middlesbrough 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Burnley 3:1
- 15.08.2026 away Norwich 2:1
This season: Derby County at home vs West Bromwich Albion away
| Metric | Derby County · at home | West Bromwich Albion · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.16 | 1.63 |
| xG against per match | 2.49 | 2.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.01.2026 Derby County 1:1 West Bromwich Albion
- 13.09.2025 West Bromwich Albion 0:1 Derby County
- 21.04.2025 West Bromwich Albion 1:3 Derby County
- 26.12.2024 Derby County 2:1 West Bromwich Albion
- 27.12.2021 Derby County 1:0 West Bromwich Albion
- 14.09.2021 West Bromwich Albion 0:0 Derby County
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Derby County host West Bromwich Albion in a Championship fixture that points towards a closely contested match, with a slight edge for the visitors. The overall assessment favours West Bromwich Albion, although the balance is not so one-sided that Derby County can be discounted. A measured approach from both sides could be important, as the projected scoring level suggests a match with a moderate number of goals rather than an especially open contest.
The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the game may be decided by small moments rather than sustained dominance. Derby County should have opportunities to make the home advantage count, while West Bromwich Albion appear better placed to avoid defeat and potentially claim a narrow win. The most plausible patterns include a draw with goals or a controlled away success, with the visitors’ advantage reflected more in consistency of outcome than in an expectation of a high-scoring match.
What matters before kick-off
Rhian Brewster Out due to Concussion Protocol
Derby County forward Rhian Brewster will miss the clash against West Bromwich Albion following concussion protocols after being forced off in the match against West Ham.
John Eustace Speaks Ahead of West Brom Encounter
Derby County head coach John Eustace stated that his team is looking forward to returning to Pride Park for the midweek match against West Bromwich Albion after playing back-to-back away fixtures.
Derby's Unbeaten Streak Against West Brom
Derby County remain unbeaten in their last eight head-to-head matches against West Bromwich Albion across all competitions, claiming five victories in regulation time.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.