Charlton Athletic — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.7% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 71.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.9% / 94.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Charlton Athletic face Queens Park Rangers in a Championship match where the visitors hold a slight edge. The assessment points towards a competitive contest rather than a strongly one-sided game, with Queens Park Rangers having the clearer position in the outcome view. The market signal also supports a result that would favour the visitors or end level, keeping Charlton Athletic within the range of plausible outcomes.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1 identified as the likeliest scorelines. That range reflects a match where Queens Park Rangers may have enough to avoid defeat, while Charlton Athletic remain capable of contributing to the score. Whether both teams score is regarded as evenly balanced, so there is no strong indication in either direction on that specific point. Overall, the strongest reading is a high-confidence but measured preference for Queens Park Rangers, with a draw still a meaningful alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Dan McNamara Suspended for Charlton Athletic
Charlton Athletic defender Dan McNamara is unavailable for the match against Queens Park Rangers following his red card against Stoke City.
Recent Championship Results
Both clubs enter the fixture level on 10 points after five matches, with Charlton Athletic coming off a 4-0 defeat to Stoke City and Queens Park Rangers recently losing 1-0 to Middlesbrough.
Queens Park Rangers Availability News
Queens Park Rangers enter the London derby without creative midfielder Ilias Chair, alongside several other squad absentees including Karamoko Dembele.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.