Villarreal CF — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 03.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
21.0%
Home win
Villarreal CF
X
19.5%
Draw
W2
59.4%
Away win
Paris Saint-Germain
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1280.5%
Both teams to score
Yes68.1%
Totals 2.5
Over72.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.6% |
| 12 | 80.5% | |
| X2 | 79.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
Goal distribution model
Villarreal CF × Paris Saint-Germain
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.6%
0:1
5.3%
0:2
6.6%
0:3
5.2%
0:4
3.1%
0:5
1.5%
1
1:0
3.0%
1:1
7.9%
1:2
9.1%
1:3
7.2%
1:4
4.3%
1:5
2.0%
2
2:0
2.2%
2:1
5.3%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
5.0%
2:4
3.0%
2:5
1.4%
3
3:0
1.0%
3:1
2.4%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
1.4%
3:5
0.6%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:29.1%
1:17.9%
1:37.2%
0:26.6%
2:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Valencia 2:1
- 17.10.2026 home Elche 0:0
- 10.10.2026 away Real Madrid 0:1
- 20.09.2026 home Levante 3:1
- 17.09.2026 away Malaga 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 home Lyon 2:0
- 17.10.2026 away Strasbourg 3:1
- 10.10.2026 home Le Mans 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Marseille 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Brest 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.