Manchester United — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 03.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
41.6%
Home win
Manchester United
X
26.6%
Draw
W2
31.9%
Away win
AS Roma
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.4%
Both teams to score
Yes67.0%
Totals 2.5
Over64.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.1% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Goal distribution model
Manchester United × AS Roma
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.5%
0:1
3.8%
0:2
4.3%
0:3
2.2%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
4.6%
1:1
11.8%
1:2
7.7%
1:3
3.9%
1:4
1.5%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.7%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
6.8%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
3.4%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
4.0%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
2.3%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.8%
2:18.8%
1:27.7%
2:26.8%
2:05.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Bournemouth 0:3
- 18.10.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Tottenham 1:1
- 20.09.2026 away Fulham 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.10.2026 home Cagliari 4:2
- 24.10.2026 away Napoli 3:3
- 17.10.2026 home Genoa 2:0
- 11.10.2026 away Como 0:0
- 19.09.2026 home Inter 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Manchester United wins1
Draws0
AS Roma wins1
Goals per match6.50
Both teams scored2/2
Over 2.5 goals2/2
- 06.05.2021 AS Roma 3:2 Manchester United
- 29.04.2021 Manchester United 6:2 AS Roma
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.