Atletico Madrid — Bayern Munich: Win probabilities, 03.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
27.3%
Home win
Atletico Madrid
X
23.6%
Draw
W2
49.2%
Away win
Bayern Munich
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.4%
Both teams to score
Yes70.5%
Totals 2.5
Over70.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.8% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 72.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.7% / 29.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.5% / 69.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.4% / 83.6% |
Goal distribution model
Atletico Madrid × Bayern Munich
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.9%
0:1
4.1%
0:2
5.7%
0:3
4.0%
0:4
2.1%
0:5
0.9%
1
1:0
2.7%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
8.9%
1:3
6.2%
1:4
3.3%
1:5
1.4%
2
2:0
3.1%
2:1
6.5%
2:2
6.9%
2:3
4.8%
2:4
2.5%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
1.6%
3:1
3.4%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
1.3%
3:5
0.6%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
1.0%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.7%
1:28.9%
2:26.9%
2:16.5%
1:36.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home La Coruna 1:0
- 17.10.2026 away Espanol 1:0
- 10.10.2026 away Alaves 2:1
- 20.09.2026 home Real Madrid 2:1
- 16.09.2026 home Osasuna 4:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Freiburg 3:1
- 17.10.2026 home RB Leipzig 6:1
- 10.10.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Union Berlin 7:0
- 13.09.2026 away Elversberg 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Atletico Madrid wins2
Draws1
Bayern Munich wins3
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 01.12.2020 Atletico Madrid 1:1 Bayern Munich
- 21.10.2020 Bayern Munich 4:0 Atletico Madrid
- 06.12.2016 Bayern Munich 1:0 Atletico Madrid
- 28.09.2016 Atletico Madrid 1:0 Bayern Munich
- 03.05.2016 Bayern Munich 2:1 Atletico Madrid
- 27.04.2016 Atletico Madrid 1:0 Bayern Munich
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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