FC Barcelona — Aston Villa: Win probabilities, 03.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
77.2%
Home win
FC Barcelona
X
14.4%
Draw
W2
8.3%
Away win
Aston Villa
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X91.7%
Both teams to score
Yes65.5%
Totals 2.5
Over80.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.7% |
| 12 | 85.6% | |
| X2 | 22.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.6% / 2.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 80.7% / 19.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 26.9% / 73.1% |
Goal distribution model
FC Barcelona × Aston Villa
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.4%
0:1
0.4%
0:2
0.8%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
3.2%
1:1
5.8%
1:2
2.6%
1:3
1.0%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
6.8%
2:1
7.6%
2:2
4.2%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.3%
3:1
8.1%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
5.9%
4:1
6.6%
4:2
3.6%
4:3
1.3%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
3.8%
5:1
4.2%
5:2
2.4%
5:3
0.9%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
3:18.1%
2:17.6%
3:07.3%
2:06.8%
4:16.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Real Madrid 1:2
- 17.10.2026 away Betis 5:2
- 10.10.2026 home Getafe 3:0
- 19.09.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
- 16.09.2026 home Santander 7:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Man City 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Newcastle 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Tottenham 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 6.25 → now 6.00 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.