Vancouver Whitecaps FC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 29.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.2% |
| 12 | 83.3% | |
| X2 | 30.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 18.10.2026 away Austin FC 2:1
- 15.10.2026 away St. Louis City 0:0
- 11.10.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:1
- 07.10.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Seattle Sounders 2:2
- 18.10.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 2:2
- 15.10.2026 home Houston Dynamo 3:3
- 11.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:4
- 27.09.2026 away Austin FC 3:3
This season: Vancouver Whitecaps FC at home vs San Diego FC away
| Metric | Vancouver Whitecaps FC · at home | San Diego FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 9–2–4 | 2–6–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.33 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.93 | 1.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 53% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 24.05.2026 San Diego FC 2:4 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 30.11.2025 San Diego FC 1:3 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 20.07.2025 San Diego FC 1:1 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 26.06.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3:5 San Diego FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Vancouver Whitecaps FC enter this MLS meeting with a clear home advantage over San Diego FC, supported by a strong record on their own ground. They have won 9 of 15 home matches this season, scoring 35 goals and conceding just 14. Although their recent form has been less convincing, with one win, two draws and two losses in their last five matches, their home performances provide a solid basis for expecting them to control significant periods of the game.
San Diego FC have struggled to find consistency away from home, winning only 2 of 15 matches on the road while losing 7 and conceding 29 goals. Their recent sequence of four draws and one defeat suggests they can remain competitive, but their defensive record raises concerns against a productive home side. They have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, indicating that they retain attacking potential despite their mixed results.
The head-to-head record also favours Vancouver Whitecaps FC, who have won 2 of the 4 meetings, including a 4-2 victory in the most recent encounter in 2026. All four meetings have seen both teams score, while three produced at least three goals. The overall assessment gives the hosts a moderate but meaningful advantage in a match that could feature chances at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Thomas Müller returns to training for Vancouver Whitecaps
German star Thomas Müller has returned to full training for Vancouver Whitecaps FC after recovering from a hamstring injury that kept him out since October 6.
Vancouver Whitecaps return home after five road games
Vancouver Whitecaps FC return to BC Place to host San Diego FC after completing a five-match MLS road trip.
San Diego FC enter on three-game draw streak
San Diego FC head into their matchup against Vancouver Whitecaps FC having played to draws in three consecutive MLS fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.