Nashville SC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 29.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.4% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
- 18.10.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 15.10.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:0
- 11.10.2026 away Austin FC 4:1
- 27.09.2026 home Toronto FC 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Charlotte 2:2
- 15.10.2026 away Chicago Fire 3:1
- 11.10.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 27.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
This season: Nashville SC at home vs Philadelphia Union away
| Metric | Nashville SC · at home | Philadelphia Union · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 14–1–0 | 6–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 2.27 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Philadelphia Union 0:0 Nashville SC
- 06.07.2025 Nashville SC 1:0 Philadelphia Union
- 16.03.2025 Philadelphia Union 1:3 Nashville SC
- 21.07.2024 Philadelphia Union 3:0 Nashville SC
- 07.04.2024 Nashville SC 1:2 Philadelphia Union
- 08.10.2023 Philadelphia Union 0:0 Nashville SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Nashville SC enter this MLS fixture against Philadelphia Union with a slight but well-supported advantage, particularly given their outstanding home record. Nashville SC have won four of their last five matches, drawing the other, while scoring 13 goals and conceding just two. Their performances at home have been even more convincing: 14 wins and one draw from 15 matches this season, with 45 goals scored and 12 conceded. This combination of consistency and attacking output gives the hosts a strong foundation heading into the meeting.
Philadelphia Union remain a dangerous opponent, having won three of their last five matches and scored 12 goals during that period. However, their away record is less reassuring, with six wins, two draws and seven defeats across 15 league matches. They have scored 34 goals on the road but conceded 32, suggesting that their attacking threat can be accompanied by defensive vulnerability. That contrast with Nashville SC’s home solidity is an important factor in assessing the balance between the sides.
A competitive match with goals from both teams is a reasonable expectation. Nashville SC have the stronger overall case, but Philadelphia Union possess enough attacking quality to make the contest difficult. The hosts hold a clear home advantage, although a draw or an away victory cannot be ruled out.
What matters before kick-off
Nashville SC wins Supporters' Shield
A 2-0 victory over CF Montréal secured top spot in the 2026 MLS regular season standings and the Supporters' Shield title for Nashville SC.
Philadelphia Union playoff scenario
Philadelphia Union will officially clinch a berth in the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs with a victory against Nashville SC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.