Saint Louis City SC — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 29.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 79.3% | |
| X2 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.0% / 30.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.8% / 51.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Real Salt Lake 0:3
- 17.10.2026 away Minnesota United 2:3
- 15.10.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:0
- 12.10.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 6:2
- 01.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Charlotte 3:2
- 18.10.2026 home Colorado Rapids 0:0
- 15.10.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:2
- 11.10.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 3:3
- 27.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:3
This season: Saint Louis City SC at home vs Portland Timbers away
| Metric | Saint Louis City SC · at home | Portland Timbers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 9–4–2 | 2–3–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.27 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.27 | 2.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.09.2026 Portland Timbers 2:2 Saint Louis City SC
- 14.07.2025 Saint Louis City SC 2:1 Portland Timbers
- 09.06.2025 Portland Timbers 2:1 Saint Louis City SC
- 25.08.2024 Portland Timbers 4:4 Saint Louis City SC
- 09.06.2024 Saint Louis City SC 0:0 Portland Timbers
- 30.04.2023 Saint Louis City SC 1:2 Portland Timbers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Saint Louis City SC have a slight edge over Portland Timbers heading into this MLS meeting, primarily because of their strong home record. They have won 9 of their 15 home matches this season, scoring 34 goals and conceding 19. That attacking output suggests they can create consistent pressure, although their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. The hosts will need to turn their home advantage into sustained attacking momentum while remaining alert to Portland Timbers’ ability to contribute to an open contest.
Portland Timbers have struggled away from home, winning only 2 of 15 matches on the road this season, with 10 defeats and 31 goals conceded. Their recent record is also inconsistent, with one win, two draws and two losses across their last five games. However, the head-to-head history suggests they should not be dismissed: the teams have drawn three of their six meetings, and their most recent encounter ended 2-2 in 2026. Both sides have scored in five of those six matches, with five also featuring more than two goals. Overall, Saint Louis City SC have the stronger case, but Portland Timbers could still find the net. A competitive, high-scoring match with opportunities at both ends looks plausible.
What matters before kick-off
St. Louis City returns home
Following a three-match road trip, St. Louis CITY SC returns to Energizer Park for a midweek MLS contest against the Portland Timbers.
Recent team results
In their most recent fixtures, St. Louis CITY SC suffered a 3-0 defeat against Real Salt Lake, while the Portland Timbers secured a 3-2 victory over Charlotte FC.
St. Louis City home record
St. Louis CITY SC has built a strong home record this MLS season, collecting 31 points across 15 home matches with 9 wins, 2 losses, and 4 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.