Charlotte FC — CF Montreal: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.6% |
| 12 | 81.1% | |
| X2 | 34.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.0% / 38.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.5% / 71.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Portland Timbers 2:3
- 17.10.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:2
- 15.10.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:3
- 11.10.2026 home FC Dallas 3:2
- 27.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Nashville SC 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 15.10.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:3
- 10.10.2026 away Toronto FC 1:2
- 27.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 3:1
This season: Charlotte FC at home vs CF Montreal away
| Metric | Charlotte FC · at home | CF Montreal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 8–4–3 | 2–2–11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.93 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.07 | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 73% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.09.2026 CF Montreal 1:2 Charlotte FC
- 28.09.2025 Charlotte FC 1:4 CF Montreal
- 13.04.2025 CF Montreal 0:1 Charlotte FC
- 06.10.2024 Charlotte FC 2:0 CF Montreal
- 15.09.2024 CF Montreal 2:1 Charlotte FC
- 16.07.2023 CF Montreal 2:0 Charlotte FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Charlotte FC enter this MLS meeting with CF Montreal holding a clear advantage, particularly when comparing their home performances with the visitors’ away record. Charlotte FC have won 8 of their 15 home matches this season, scoring 29 goals and conceding 16. CF Montreal, by contrast, have managed only 2 wins in 15 away games, suffering 11 defeats and conceding 39 goals. That difference provides a strong basis for favouring the hosts, although Charlotte FC’s recent form has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five matches.
CF Montreal have also struggled for consistency, recording one win, one draw and three losses across their last five outings. Their 5 goals scored and 9 conceded in that sequence point to difficulties at both ends of the pitch. The most recent head-to-head meeting offers Charlotte FC further encouragement, as they won 2-1 away against CF Montreal in 2026. However, the broader record is balanced, with three wins apiece across the last six encounters.
Overall, Charlotte FC look better positioned to control the contest, especially on home ground. Their attacking output suggests they can create scoring opportunities against a defence that has struggled away from home. CF Montreal may still find a way onto the scoresheet, making an open game plausible, but the hosts have the stronger overall case for victory.
What matters before kick-off
Match featured during Fan Appreciation Week
Charlotte FC hosts CF Montréal at Bank of America Stadium on Wednesday, October 28, as part of the club's Fan Appreciation Week.
Head-to-head record
CF Montréal holds an all-time record of 5-3-1 against Charlotte FC, including a 2-1-1 record on the road.
Charlotte's recent result
Prior to this match, Charlotte FC fell 3-2 on the road to the Portland Timbers in regular season play.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.