New England Revolution — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

New England Revolution have a slight edge heading into their MLS meeting with New York Red Bulls, with their home record providing the strongest argument in their favour. They have won 10 of their 15 home matches this season, scoring 27 goals and conceding 16. That combination suggests a side capable of creating chances consistently while maintaining a reasonably solid defensive foundation on familiar ground. Their recent form has been mixed, with three wins and two defeats in their last five matches, so the hosts will need to build on their home performances rather than rely solely on their overall momentum.

New York Red Bulls present a more uncertain prospect away from home. They have recorded five wins, three draws and seven defeats in 15 away matches, conceding 27 goals while scoring 17. Their recent sequence of two wins and three losses also points to inconsistency. The head-to-head record is evenly balanced, with both sides winning three of their six meetings, although New York Red Bulls claimed a 1-0 victory in the most recent encounter in 2026.

The overall outlook favours New England Revolution, but the visitors have enough attacking potential to remain competitive. An open contest with opportunities at both ends looks plausible, and the hosts have the stronger foundation to avoid defeat, even if a draw remains a realistic outcome.