Toronto FC — DC United: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

Toronto FC have a slight edge over DC United heading into this MLS meeting, with their recent form and home record providing reasons for cautious optimism. Toronto FC have won two of their last five matches, scoring 9 goals but conceding 10, which points to a side capable of creating chances but not always controlling games defensively. At home this season, they have recorded five wins, nine draws and just two defeats in 16 matches. That resilience makes them difficult to dismiss, although the high number of draws suggests that turning competitive performances into victories remains a challenge.

DC United arrive in less convincing form, having lost four of their last five matches and conceded 13 goals while scoring only 4. Their away record also raises concerns: two wins, seven draws and six defeats in 15 games, with 27 goals conceded. Toronto FC therefore have the more encouraging overall profile, particularly given DC United's recent defensive difficulties. However, the head-to-head record offers little historical separation, with two wins apiece and two draws across six meetings. Five of those encounters saw both teams score, while five produced more than two goals. The overall picture points towards an open contest in which Toronto FC hold a slight advantage, but DC United may still find opportunities to threaten.