Austin FC — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 29.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.3% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 65.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 18.10.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 1:2
- 15.10.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:3
- 11.10.2026 home Nashville SC 1:4
- 27.09.2026 home San Diego FC 3:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home St. Louis City 3:0
- 18.10.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 3:1
- 15.10.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 11.10.2026 away Philadelphia Union 1:2
- 27.09.2026 home New England Revolution 3:0
This season: Austin FC at home vs Real Salt Lake away
| Metric | Austin FC · at home | Real Salt Lake · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 4–6–5 | 2–3–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Real Salt Lake 2:1 Austin FC
- 28.09.2025 Real Salt Lake 3:1 Austin FC
- 29.05.2025 Austin FC 1:1 Real Salt Lake
- 29.09.2024 Austin FC 2:2 Real Salt Lake
- 02.06.2024 Real Salt Lake 5:1 Austin FC
- 04.06.2023 Austin FC 1:2 Real Salt Lake
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Austin FC face Real Salt Lake in an MLS meeting that presents a contrast between recent form and home advantage. Austin FC have won just one of their last five matches, drawing one and losing three, while conceding 13 goals and scoring eight. Their home record this season has also been mixed, with four wins, six draws and five defeats in 15 matches. They have scored 21 goals at home and conceded the same number, suggesting that their matches in Austin have offered opportunities at both ends without consistent defensive control.
Real Salt Lake arrive in better recent form, having won three of their last five matches, drawn one and lost one. They have scored 11 goals and conceded only four across that run, providing a stronger recent defensive platform. However, their away record is a significant counterweight: two wins, three draws and ten losses in 15 matches, with 27 goals conceded. Their overall form is encouraging, but reproducing it on the road remains a challenge.
The head-to-head record favours Real Salt Lake, who have won four of the last six meetings, with the other two ending in draws. Both teams scored in all six encounters, and five featured at least three goals. The teams appear evenly matched overall, with a reasonable expectation of an open contest in which both sides can find scoring opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Austin FC player availability
Austin FC listed Chris Applewhite (quad), Jon Bell (lower abdomen), and Ervin Torres (ankle) as out for their match against Real Salt Lake.
Real Salt Lake squad injuries
According to the official MLS player status report, Real Salt Lake players Emeka Eneli and Diego Luna are ruled out for the match against Austin FC due to knee injuries.
Real Salt Lake recent result
Real Salt Lake head into their road fixture against Austin FC following a 3-0 home win over St. Louis CITY SC on October 24, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.