San Diego FC — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 2:2
- 15.10.2026 home Houston Dynamo 3:3
- 11.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:4
- 27.09.2026 away Austin FC 3:3
- 21.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home CF Montreal 1:1
- 15.10.2026 away FC Dallas 0:1
- 11.10.2026 away New England Revolution 3:0
- 02.10.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 27.09.2026 home Minnesota United 3:1
This season: San Diego FC at home vs Seattle Sounders away
| Metric | San Diego FC · at home | Seattle Sounders · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–5 | 4–5–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.80 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 47% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Seattle Sounders 1:1 San Diego FC
- 29.05.2025 Seattle Sounders 1:0 San Diego FC
- 06.04.2025 San Diego FC 3:0 Seattle Sounders
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 2.15 |
| W2 | was 2.88 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
San Diego FC enter this MLS meeting with a slight home advantage, although their recent form suggests a closely contested match. They have drawn four of their last five games and lost once, without recording a victory during that stretch. Despite those inconsistent results, their home performances offer reasons for optimism: San Diego FC have scored 35 goals in 15 home matches this season. However, conceding 27 goals over the same period highlights a defensive vulnerability that could give Seattle Sounders opportunities to influence the game.
Seattle Sounders arrive in stronger recent form, having won three of their last five matches, with one draw and one defeat. Their defensive record during that run is particularly encouraging, with only four goals conceded while scoring nine. Away from home, however, Seattle Sounders have been less convincing, recording four wins, five draws and six losses in 15 matches. That mixed record leaves room for San Diego FC to take advantage of their home setting.
The previous meeting between these sides ended in a 1-1 draw in 2026, reflecting the potential for a balanced contest. San Diego FC hold a slight overall edge because of their home scoring record, but Seattle Sounders' recent defensive improvement makes them a credible threat. Both teams have pathways to scoring, and an open match with goals at both ends looks plausible, though the final outcome remains uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Previous 2026 head-to-head result
In their previous MLS regular season meeting on May 9, 2026, Seattle Sounders FC and San Diego FC played to a 1-1 draw at Lumen Field.
Anders Dreyer leading San Diego FC's attack
Midfielder Anders Dreyer leads San Diego FC in scoring in the 2026 MLS season with 13 goals and 10 assists.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.