Portland Timbers — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.3% / 27.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.4% / 26.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Colorado Rapids 0:0
- 15.10.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:2
- 11.10.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 3:3
- 27.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:3
- 20.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:2
- 15.10.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:3
- 11.10.2026 home FC Dallas 3:2
- 27.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away DC United 2:1
This season: Portland Timbers at home vs Charlotte FC away
| Metric | Portland Timbers · at home | Charlotte FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 7–4–4 | 5–4–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.07 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 1.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 73% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 73% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 05.05.2024 Charlotte FC 2:0 Portland Timbers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.00 → now 1.91 |
| W2 | was 3.30 → now 3.50 |
Match preview
Portland Timbers have a slight edge heading into this MLS meeting with Charlotte FC, although their recent form offers reasons for caution. The hosts have gone five matches without a win, recording two draws and three defeats while scoring four goals and conceding nine. Their home record is more encouraging: seven wins and four draws from 15 matches suggest they can be competitive on familiar ground. However, conceding 25 goals at home indicates that defensive consistency remains a concern.
Charlotte FC arrive with a mixed recent record of two wins, one draw and two losses across their last five matches. They have scored eight goals in that period, showing greater attacking output than Portland Timbers, but nine goals conceded highlight similar defensive vulnerabilities. Away from home, Charlotte FC have won five of 15 matches, with 24 goals scored and 29 conceded. That record suggests they have the capacity to threaten but may struggle to control the game consistently.
The overall balance points towards a competitive contest with a slight advantage for Portland Timbers, largely because of their home performances. Both sides have shown enough attacking potential to create chances, while their defensive records leave room for opponents to respond. A high-scoring match with goals at both ends is a reasonable expectation, though Charlotte FC have the potential to make this a closely contested encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Idan Toklomati's Charlotte record
Charlotte FC striker Idan Toklomati scored his 13th goal of the MLS season in a 2-2 draw against the Philadelphia Union on October 17, setting a new club single-season goalscoring record.
Clash at Providence Park
The Portland Timbers host Charlotte FC at Providence Park as both clubs enter the final stretch with four games remaining in the 2026 MLS regular season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.