Real Salt Lake — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 3:1
- 15.10.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 11.10.2026 away Philadelphia Union 1:2
- 27.09.2026 home New England Revolution 3:0
- 24.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Minnesota United 2:3
- 15.10.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:0
- 12.10.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 6:2
- 01.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 3:0
- 20.09.2026 home Toronto FC 3:1
This season: Real Salt Lake at home vs Saint Louis City SC away
| Metric | Real Salt Lake · at home | Saint Louis City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–4 | 5–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.87 | 1.47 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.08.2026 Saint Louis City SC 1:1 Real Salt Lake
- 19.10.2025 Saint Louis City SC 2:2 Real Salt Lake
- 06.07.2025 Real Salt Lake 3:2 Saint Louis City SC
- 31.03.2024 Real Salt Lake 3:1 Saint Louis City SC
- 25.02.2024 Saint Louis City SC 1:1 Real Salt Lake
- 22.06.2023 Saint Louis City SC 1:3 Real Salt Lake
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 1.95 |
| W2 | was 3.00 → now 3.50 |
Match preview
Real Salt Lake face a closely balanced contest against Saint Louis City SC in this MLS fixture, with both sides offering reasons for optimism in attack. Real Salt Lake have won 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 6. Their home record provides a stronger foundation, with 8 wins from 15 games and 28 goals scored. However, conceding 21 goals at home suggests there may be opportunities for the visitors to exploit, particularly if the hosts commit players forward.
Saint Louis City SC arrive with the more productive recent attacking record, having scored 14 goals across their last 5 matches while winning 3 and losing just once. Their away form has been less convincing, with 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats in 15 games, alongside 22 goals scored and 22 conceded. That balance points to a team capable of creating chances but not consistently controlling matches on the road.
The head-to-head record adds another layer to the contest. Real Salt Lake have won 3 of the 6 previous meetings, while the other 3 ended in draws, and Saint Louis City SC have yet to win this matchup. The most recent meeting finished 1-1 in 2026. Overall, the teams look evenly matched, with attacking quality on both sides making goals at either end a reasonable expectation.
What matters before kick-off
St. Louis CITY SC won the U.S. Open Cup
St. Louis CITY SC secured the first trophy in club history on Wednesday, beating Columbus Crew 5-3 in a penalty shootout following a 0-0 draw in the 2026 U.S. Open Cup final.
Real Salt Lake secured a road win over Sporting KC
In their previous match, Real Salt Lake earned a 3-1 victory at Sporting Kansas City, led by a brace from Morgan Guilavogui and a goal from Sergi Solans.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.