Match intelligence

Colorado Rapids — Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

League: MLS (USA) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
Colorado Rapids1
:
0Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Locked signal X2 Probability 70.4% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 29.6% Home win Colorado Rapids
X 25.5% Draw
W2 44.9% Away win Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1274.5%
Both teams to score
Yes59.0%
Totals 2.5
Over56.0%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X55.1%
1274.5%
X270.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No59.0% / 41.0%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.0% / 6.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.6% / 20.4%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 56.0% / 44.0%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 33.6% / 66.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 17.2% / 82.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.7% / 92.3%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Colorado Rapids × Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.0%
0:1 8.2%
0:2 7.2%
0:3 3.9%
0:4 1.6%
0:5 0.5%
1
1:0 6.3%
1:1 11.9%
1:2 9.3%
1:3 5.0%
1:4 2.1%
1:5 0.7%
2
2:0 4.5%
2:1 7.3%
2:2 6.0%
2:3 3.3%
2:4 1.3%
2:5 0.4%
3
3:0 1.9%
3:1 3.1%
3:2 2.6%
3:3 1.4%
3:4 0.6%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 0.6%
4:1 1.0%
4:2 0.8%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.2%
5:1 0.3%
5:2 0.2%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.9%
1:29.3%
0:18.2%
2:17.3%
0:27.2%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 away Portland Timbers 0:0
  • 15.10.2026 home Minnesota United 2:2
  • 11.10.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
  • 27.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 2:3
  • 20.09.2026 home Seattle Sounders 3:3

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 away Austin FC 2:1
  • 15.10.2026 away St. Louis City 0:0
  • 11.10.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:1
  • 07.10.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:3
  • 27.09.2026 home DC United 3:3

This season: Colorado Rapids at home vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC away

Metric Colorado Rapids · at home Vancouver Whitecaps FC · away
Matches1515
W–D–L9–3–37–5–3
Goals scored per match1.871.87
Goals conceded per match1.001.13
Over 2.5 goals40%53%
Both teams scored47%60%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Colorado Rapids wins2
Draws1
Vancouver Whitecaps FC wins3
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 26.04.2026 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3:1 Colorado Rapids
  • 13.07.2025 Colorado Rapids 3:0 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
  • 06.04.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2:0 Colorado Rapids
  • 02.06.2024 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2:1 Colorado Rapids
  • 16.05.2024 Colorado Rapids 1:0 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
  • 28.09.2023 Colorado Rapids 2:2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Colorado Rapids face Vancouver Whitecaps FC in an MLS matchup where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the hosts’ home record makes this a competitive contest. Colorado Rapids have drawn four of their last five matches, losing once and failing to secure a win during that run. Despite this inconsistent recent form, their home performances have been considerably stronger, with nine wins in 15 matches this season. They have scored 28 goals at home, demonstrating their ability to create attacking opportunities on familiar ground.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC have also experienced a mixed recent spell, recording one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five matches. However, their away record provides a stronger basis for optimism: seven wins in 15 away matches, with 28 goals scored and 17 conceded. The head-to-head record also leans towards Vancouver Whitecaps FC, who have won three of the last six meetings, including a 3-1 victory over Colorado Rapids in 2026. Four of those six encounters featured more than two goals, supporting the prospect of an open game. Both teams have reasons to expect scoring opportunities, but Vancouver Whitecaps FC appear slightly better positioned to avoid defeat. Colorado Rapids’ home strength should keep the contest competitive, making a draw or a narrow away win the most plausible overall outcomes.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Fifth consecutive road match for Vancouver Whitecaps

The visit to the Colorado Rapids concludes a five-game road stretch for Vancouver Whitecaps FC in the MLS regular season.

Match fact

Teams' conference standings

Heading into the match, Vancouver Whitecaps FC sat atop the Western Conference with 55 points and clinched a playoff spot, while the Colorado Rapids held ninth place with 39 points.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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