Lommel SK — KAA Gent: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
20.6%
Home win
Lommel SK
X
24.2%
Draw
W2
55.2%
Away win
KAA Gent
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X279.4%
Both teams to score
Yes54.2%
Totals 2.5
Over53.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.8% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 79.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.6% / 68.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Goal distribution model
Lommel SK × KAA Gent
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.5%
0:1
10.0%
0:2
9.6%
0:3
5.8%
0:4
2.6%
0:5
1.0%
1
1:0
5.4%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
5.9%
1:4
2.7%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.1%
2:1
5.6%
2:2
5.1%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.4%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
1.1%
3:1
1.9%
3:2
1.7%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.5%
4:2
0.4%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
0:110.0%
1:29.9%
0:29.6%
0:06.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Lommel SK
8th place · 12 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2:2
- 09.10.2026 away Beveren 3:1
- 19.09.2026 home Mechelen 0:0
- 12.09.2026 away St. Gilloise 0:5
- 04.09.2026 home Club Brugge 0:1
KAA Gent
1st place · 25 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Anderlecht 4:0
- 10.10.2026 away Waregem 2:0
- 18.09.2026 home Standard 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Genk 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Cercle Brugge 3:0
This season: Lommel SK at home vs KAA Gent away
| Metric | Lommel SK · at home | KAA Gent · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 3–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| xG against per match | 1.01 | 0.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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