Match intelligence

Lincoln Red Imps — FC Twente Enschede: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

League: UEFA Conference League · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Lincoln Red Imps1
:
4FC Twente Enschede
Locked signal W2 Probability 84.1% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 5.6% Home win Lincoln Red Imps
X 10.3% Draw
W2 84.1% Away win FC Twente Enschede
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X294.4%
Both teams to score
No53.4%
Totals 2.5
Over71.6%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X15.9%
1289.7%
X294.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No46.6% / 53.4%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 97.8% / 2.2%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 88.3% / 11.7%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 71.6% / 28.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 50.8% / 49.2%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 31.5% / 68.5%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 17.1% / 82.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Lincoln Red Imps × FC Twente Enschede
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 2.2%
0:1 7.6%
0:2 11.3%
0:3 11.4%
0:4 8.6%
0:5 5.2%
1
1:0 1.9%
1:1 4.8%
1:2 7.6%
1:3 7.7%
1:4 5.8%
1:5 3.5%
2
2:0 0.6%
2:1 1.7%
2:2 2.6%
2:3 2.6%
2:4 2.0%
2:5 1.2%
3
3:0 0.1%
3:1 0.4%
3:2 0.6%
3:3 0.6%
3:4 0.4%
3:5 0.3%
4
4:0 0.0%
4:1 0.1%
4:2 0.1%
4:3 0.1%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.0%
5:2 0.0%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:311.4%
0:211.3%
0:48.6%
1:37.7%
1:27.6%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 22.10.2026

Lincoln Red Imps

Last 4 matches · latest first

  • 15.10.2026 away SK Brann 1:2
  • 13.08.2026 away AC Omonia Nicosia 0:1
  • 06.08.2026 home AC Omonia Nicosia 1:1
  • 28.07.2026 home Mjallby AIF 0:0

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
  • 10.10.2026 away For Sittard 1:1
  • 20.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 3:2
  • 12.09.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
  • 09.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

W1 was 11.00 → now 13.00
X was 6.50 → now 7.50
W2 was 1.22 → now 1.17
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Lincoln Red Imps face a challenging test against FC Twente Enschede in the UEFA Conference League, with the visitors holding a clear advantage based on their recent form. Lincoln Red Imps have struggled to find consistency, recording two draws and two defeats in their last four matches without a win. Their attacking output has also been limited, with just two goals scored across that run, while they have conceded four. This combination of limited scoring and an inability to turn matches into victories leaves them with significant work to do against a more productive opponent.

FC Twente Enschede arrive with a stronger overall record, having won three of their last five matches, alongside one draw and one defeat. They have scored eight goals during that period, demonstrating greater attacking effectiveness, although conceding five suggests there may still be opportunities for their opponents. The contrast between the teams' recent results and scoring records points towards the visitors being better equipped to control the contest and create the more dangerous chances. A high-scoring match is a reasonable possibility given FC Twente Enschede's attacking output and defensive concessions, but Lincoln Red Imps' recent scoring difficulties make their contribution less predictable. Overall, FC Twente Enschede have a clear edge, while the hosts will need a substantial improvement in their attacking performance to challenge that advantage.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Conference League opening matchday results

FC Twente opened their 2026/27 UEFA Conference League campaign with a 1-0 victory over Swiss club FC Thun on October 15, 2026, while Gibraltar's Lincoln Red Imps fell to a 2-1 defeat against SK Brann.

Schedule

FC Twente unbeaten run ended

FC Twente suffered a 2-1 defeat at home to FC Utrecht in the Eredivisie on October 18, 2026, ending a nine-game unbeaten run across all competitions.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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