Ajax Amsterdam — Atalanta BC: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

Ajax Amsterdam enter this UEFA Conference League meeting with Atalanta BC in the stronger recent form, giving the hosts a slight edge. Ajax Amsterdam are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws while scoring 18 goals and conceding seven. That combination of consistent results and attacking output suggests a team capable of creating chances and putting sustained pressure on the opposition. Atalanta BC, by contrast, have struggled for consistency, losing four of their last five matches and winning only once. They have scored seven goals and conceded ten over that period, leaving them with a less convincing recent record at both ends of the pitch.

The contrasting form makes Ajax Amsterdam the more appealing side, although the expected balance remains competitive rather than one-sided. Atalanta BC have a historical advantage in their two previous meetings, winning once and drawing once, including a 1-0 victory over Ajax in 2020. That result offers a reminder that the visitors can be difficult opponents despite their current difficulties. The overall outlook points towards an open match, with both teams capable of scoring and opportunities likely to emerge at either end. Ajax Amsterdam have the better momentum and a modest home advantage, but Atalanta BC retain enough potential to make this a closely contested encounter.