AS Monaco — SC Freiburg: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

AS Monaco face SC Freiburg in the UEFA Conference League with a slight edge from home advantage, although the recent form of both sides suggests a competitive encounter. AS Monaco have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches, scoring seven goals and conceding six. Their results indicate a team capable of producing positive performances but not consistently controlling games. Against an opponent in stronger recent form, defensive organisation and the ability to make home advantage count could be important factors.

SC Freiburg arrive with three wins, one draw and one defeat across their last five matches. They have scored 11 goals and conceded five, giving them the stronger attacking output and the more convincing defensive record of the two teams over that period. This makes SC Freiburg a credible threat, particularly if they can maintain their recent scoring efficiency. AS Monaco will need to limit the visitors' opportunities while making effective use of their own attacking chances.

Overall, AS Monaco hold a modest advantage, but the difference between the teams is not substantial enough to suggest a one-sided contest. A medium-scoring match looks plausible, with both sides having reasonable grounds to find the net. The balance of play could remain close throughout, and SC Freiburg's recent form gives them a realistic chance of taking something from the fixture.