FC Thun — HNK Hajduk Split: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

FC Thun face HNK Hajduk Split in the UEFA Conference League in a contest that looks evenly matched, although the visitors arrive with the stronger recent record. FC Thun have lost three of their last four matches, recording just one win in that sequence. Their seven goals scored show that they can contribute in attack, but conceding seven over the same period highlights a defensive vulnerability that could become important against an opponent in better form.

HNK Hajduk Split have won three of their last four matches, with only one defeat in that run. They have also scored 11 goals, giving them a stronger attacking record than FC Thun over the same number of games, while conceding seven. That combination suggests the visitors have the capacity to create problems going forward, even if their defensive record leaves room for the hosts to find opportunities. The contrast in recent results gives HNK Hajduk Split a slight edge, but FC Thun retain a credible route into the contest, particularly if they can make their attacking play count at home.

A competitive match with goals at both ends is a reasonable overall expectation. The balance of attacking output and recent defensive records points towards an open game, with a draw or a narrow victory for either side remaining plausible.