AGF Aarhus — KF Egnatia Rrogozhine: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

AGF Aarhus enter their UEFA Conference League meeting with KF Egnatia Rrogozhine as the stronger side on balance, although their recent results suggest there is still room for improvement. AGF Aarhus have won one and lost two of their last three matches, scoring four goals and conceding six. That record points to some defensive vulnerability, but the overall assessment still gives the hosts a clear advantage. Their ability to make home advantage count will be important, particularly if they can establish control early and limit the visitors’ opportunities.

KF Egnatia Rrogozhine have also recorded one win in their last four matches, alongside one draw and two defeats. They have scored ten goals but conceded eleven over that stretch, indicating a more open pattern of games in which attacking output has not consistently translated into defensive stability. This could give AGF Aarhus opportunities to exploit spaces, while the visitors have shown enough scoring potential to remain a threat. The overall outlook favours AGF Aarhus with moderate confidence, rather than suggesting a one-sided contest. A match with a moderate number of goals appears plausible, and whether both teams find the net remains difficult to call. The hosts have the clearer route to victory, but their recent defensive record leaves some uncertainty around how comfortably they can manage the game.