KAA Gent — Standard Liege: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 45.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
KAA Gent
2nd place · 16 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Genk 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Cercle Brugge 3:0
- 03.09.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Club Brugge 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 2:1
Standard Liege
6th place · 11 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Westerlo 2:4
- 05.09.2026 home Antwerp 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2:1
- 21.08.2026 home RAAL La Louviere 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Mechelen 3:3
This season: KAA Gent at home vs Standard Liege away
| Metric | KAA Gent · at home | Standard Liege · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.17 | 1.41 |
| xG against per match | 0.50 | 2.02 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.01.2026 Standard Liege 0:4 KAA Gent
- 25.10.2025 KAA Gent 4:0 Standard Liege
- 22.12.2024 Standard Liege 0:1 KAA Gent
- 10.11.2024 KAA Gent 5:0 Standard Liege
- 18.05.2024 Standard Liege 1:4 KAA Gent
- 29.03.2024 KAA Gent 5:1 Standard Liege
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
KAA Gent host Standard Liege in the First Division A on 18 September, with the available assessment pointing to a slight advantage for the home side. The signal favours KAA Gent avoiding defeat, while the overall confidence in that reading is high. This suggests a match in which home control may be an important factor, although the gap between the teams is not presented as decisive.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0 identified as the likeliest scorelines. That range indicates a competitive game where KAA Gent could win through a narrow margin, but a draw remains a credible outcome. The assessment of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, so there is no clear indication that the match will produce goals at both ends. Standard Liege therefore remain capable of keeping the contest close, particularly if they limit KAA Gent's opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Pre-match form result
Gent enter round seven of the Belgian Pro League following a 1-1 away draw against Genk in their previous fixture.
Standard's previous match
Standard Liège suffered a 4-2 away defeat against Westerlo prior to their fixture against Gent.
Head-to-head record
Gent have won nine of their last 10 head-to-head encounters against Standard Liège.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.