FC Shakhtar Donetsk — Sporting CP: Win probabilities, 03.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
24.8%
Home win
FC Shakhtar Donetsk
X
24.8%
Draw
W2
50.4%
Away win
Sporting CP
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X275.2%
Both teams to score
Yes60.4%
Totals 2.5
Over59.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.6% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 75.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.7% / 63.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Goal distribution model
FC Shakhtar Donetsk × Sporting CP
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.6%
0:1
7.6%
0:2
7.8%
0:3
4.8%
0:4
2.2%
0:5
0.8%
1
1:0
4.8%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
9.7%
1:3
5.9%
1:4
2.7%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.6%
2:1
6.5%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
3.6%
2:4
1.7%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
1.5%
3:1
2.7%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
1:29.7%
0:27.8%
0:17.6%
2:16.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.11.2026
FC Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 21.10.2026 away Inter Milano 0:1
- 14.10.2026 home AEK Athens 3:1
- 10.09.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Academico Viseu 1:2
- 09.10.2026 away Sp Braga 3:1
- 19.09.2026 home Arouca 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away Famalicao 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Nacional 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.