FC Lugano — FK Kauno Zalgiris: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
78.9%
Home win
FC Lugano
X
13.9%
Draw
W2
7.1%
Away win
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X92.9%
Both teams to score
No57.7%
Totals 2.5
Over60.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.9% |
| 12 | 86.1% | |
| X2 | 21.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.3% / 57.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
Goal distribution model
FC Lugano × FK Kauno Zalgiris
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.2%
0:1
2.8%
0:2
0.8%
0:3
0.2%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
11.1%
1:1
6.6%
1:2
2.1%
1:3
0.4%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
13.8%
2:1
8.5%
2:2
2.6%
2:3
0.5%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
11.6%
3:1
7.2%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
7.3%
4:1
4.5%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.7%
5:1
2.3%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:013.8%
3:011.6%
1:011.1%
2:18.5%
4:07.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
FC Lugano
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 away Getafe CF 5:2
- 15.10.2026 home FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 3:2
- 13.08.2026 away NSI Runavik 2:2
- 06.08.2026 home NSI Runavik 2:0
- 29.07.2026 away KF Dukagjini 5:1
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home SK Brann 1:4
- 15.10.2026 away Brighton & Hove Albion 0:4
- 11.08.2026 home GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1:2
- 04.08.2026 away GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0:5
- 29.07.2026 home KI Klaksvik 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: oddmind.app. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.