AS Monaco — FC Nordsjaelland: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
67.0%
Home win
AS Monaco
X
20.2%
Draw
W2
12.8%
Away win
FC Nordsjaelland
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X87.2%
Both teams to score
No50.9%
Totals 2.5
Over55.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.2% / 20.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
AS Monaco × FC Nordsjaelland
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.8%
0:1
3.9%
0:2
1.8%
0:3
0.5%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
11.0%
1:1
9.6%
1:2
3.7%
1:3
1.0%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
12.0%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
3.9%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
8.5%
3:1
6.8%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
4.5%
4:1
3.6%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.9%
5:1
1.5%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.0%
1:011.0%
2:19.7%
1:19.6%
3:08.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Lille 1:1
- 18.10.2026 away Lorient 0:1
- 10.10.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Strasbourg 1:1
FC Nordsjaelland
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home PFC CSKA Sofia 2:2
- 15.10.2026 away Heart of Midlothian FC 1:1
- 13.08.2026 home Valur Reykjavik 5:0
- 06.08.2026 away Valur Reykjavik 2:0
- 30.07.2026 home GAIS 6:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.