Match intelligence

CA River Plate (ARG) — Racing Club Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

League: Primera LPF, Clausura (Argentina) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
CA River Plate (ARG)1
:
0Racing Club Avellaneda
Locked signal W1 Probability 65.0% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 65.0% Home win CA River Plate (ARG)
X 22.3% Draw
W2 12.7% Away win Racing Club Avellaneda
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X87.5%
Both teams to score
No52.5%
Totals 2.5
Over52.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X87.5%
1278.4%
X234.2%
Both teams to scoreYes/No47.5% / 52.5%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.1% / 6.9%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 77.6% / 22.4%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 52.9% / 47.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 30.7% / 69.3%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 15.2% / 84.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 6.5% / 93.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

CA River Plate (ARG) × Racing Club Avellaneda
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.9%
0:1 4.0%
0:2 1.8%
0:3 0.5%
0:4 0.1%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 11.6%
1:1 10.3%
1:2 3.7%
1:3 0.9%
1:4 0.2%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 12.5%
2:1 9.7%
2:2 3.7%
2:3 1.0%
2:4 0.2%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 8.4%
3:1 6.5%
3:2 2.5%
3:3 0.6%
3:4 0.1%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 4.3%
4:1 3.3%
4:2 1.3%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 1.7%
5:1 1.3%
5:2 0.5%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.5%
1:011.6%
1:110.3%
2:19.7%
3:08.4%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 19.10.2026 away Belgrano 3:0
  • 14.10.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 1:1
  • 11.10.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 1:0
  • 19.09.2026 home Huracan 1:2
  • 12.09.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 2:1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 home Independiente 1:1
  • 11.10.2026 home Belgrano 0:2
  • 05.10.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1
  • 19.09.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 3:1
  • 14.09.2026 away Huracan 1:2

This season: CA River Plate (ARG) at home vs Racing Club Avellaneda away

Metric CA River Plate (ARG) · at home Racing Club Avellaneda · away
Matches1916
W–D–L10–2–75–5–6
Goals scored per match1.531.06
Goals conceded per match1.001.06
Over 2.5 goals42%50%
Both teams scored42%56%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

CA River Plate (ARG) wins3
Draws1
Racing Club Avellaneda wins2
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 13.04.2026 Racing Club Avellaneda 0:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
  • 24.11.2025 Racing Club Avellaneda 3:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
  • 15.12.2024 Racing Club Avellaneda 1:0 CA River Plate (ARG)
  • 29.07.2023 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:1 Racing Club Avellaneda
  • 23.10.2022 Racing Club Avellaneda 1:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
  • 27.02.2022 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:2 Racing Club Avellaneda

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

W2 was 7.50 → now 7.00
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

CA River Plate (ARG) enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a clear overall edge over Racing Club Avellaneda, although the hosts will still need to convert their stronger recent form into a convincing performance. River Plate have won three of their last five matches, drawing one and losing one, while scoring eight goals and conceding four. That balance suggests a side capable of creating chances while maintaining reasonable defensive control. Racing Club Avellaneda have been less consistent, recording two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five, with seven goals scored and seven conceded.

The home advantage strengthens the case for CA River Plate (ARG), who have recorded ten wins in nineteen home matches this season. Their home record also includes two draws and seven defeats, so there is room for Racing Club Avellaneda to make the contest competitive. The visitors have won five of sixteen away matches, alongside five draws and six losses, with an even record of seventeen goals scored and conceded. Their away performances suggest they can remain in contention, but they have not established a decisive advantage on the road.

The recent head-to-head record also leans towards River Plate, who won the latest meeting 2-0. Overall, CA River Plate (ARG) look the stronger side, with a moderate level of confidence in a home-favoured outcome. A medium-scoring match appears plausible, while whether both teams find the net remains uncertain.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

Historical Rivalry Context

The clash between CA River Plate and Racing Club is known as El Clásico Más Antiguo, the oldest classic rivalry in Argentine football, dating back to 1908.

Schedule

Clausura Round 14 Matchup

CA River Plate hosts Racing Club at Estadio Mâs Monumental in matchday 14 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura in Argentine Liga Profesional.

Team news

Racing Defensive Record

Ahead of their visit to CA River Plate, Racing Club managed to keep only one clean sheet across their first 13 matches of the Torneo Clausura.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

Check current terms · 1WIN18+ Bonus up to $500 Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗

Other matches

→ Primera LPF, Clausura

OFFICIAL ODDMIND.APP TELEGRAM CHANNEL New predictions — automatically in Telegram Get new signals and full-analysis links as soon as they are published. Join the channel

How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

ONE PERSON. AN INDEPENDENT PROJECT.

One person behind the project. Your support makes a difference.

The project currently runs at a loss. A voluntary contribution helps with hosting, data and AI services.

Support the project
18+ All materials are informational and do not guarantee any outcome. Predictions are produced by an automated model; the method is described on the Method page. Responsible gambling

Finding oddmind.app useful?

One person keeps this project running, and it currently brings more expenses than income. If you would like to help, a small voluntary contribution makes a difference.

Support the project
Completely optional. You can keep using the site without donating.