CA River Plate (ARG) — Racing Club Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.5% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 34.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.10.2026 away Belgrano 3:0
- 14.10.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 1:1
- 11.10.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Huracan 1:2
- 12.09.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Independiente 1:1
- 11.10.2026 home Belgrano 0:2
- 05.10.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1
- 19.09.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 3:1
- 14.09.2026 away Huracan 1:2
This season: CA River Plate (ARG) at home vs Racing Club Avellaneda away
| Metric | CA River Plate (ARG) · at home | Racing Club Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 19 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 10–2–7 | 5–5–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.53 | 1.06 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.04.2026 Racing Club Avellaneda 0:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 24.11.2025 Racing Club Avellaneda 3:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 15.12.2024 Racing Club Avellaneda 1:0 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 29.07.2023 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:1 Racing Club Avellaneda
- 23.10.2022 Racing Club Avellaneda 1:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 27.02.2022 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:2 Racing Club Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 7.50 → now 7.00 |
Match preview
CA River Plate (ARG) enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a clear overall edge over Racing Club Avellaneda, although the hosts will still need to convert their stronger recent form into a convincing performance. River Plate have won three of their last five matches, drawing one and losing one, while scoring eight goals and conceding four. That balance suggests a side capable of creating chances while maintaining reasonable defensive control. Racing Club Avellaneda have been less consistent, recording two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five, with seven goals scored and seven conceded.
The home advantage strengthens the case for CA River Plate (ARG), who have recorded ten wins in nineteen home matches this season. Their home record also includes two draws and seven defeats, so there is room for Racing Club Avellaneda to make the contest competitive. The visitors have won five of sixteen away matches, alongside five draws and six losses, with an even record of seventeen goals scored and conceded. Their away performances suggest they can remain in contention, but they have not established a decisive advantage on the road.
The recent head-to-head record also leans towards River Plate, who won the latest meeting 2-0. Overall, CA River Plate (ARG) look the stronger side, with a moderate level of confidence in a home-favoured outcome. A medium-scoring match appears plausible, while whether both teams find the net remains uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Historical Rivalry Context
The clash between CA River Plate and Racing Club is known as El Clásico Más Antiguo, the oldest classic rivalry in Argentine football, dating back to 1908.
Clausura Round 14 Matchup
CA River Plate hosts Racing Club at Estadio Mâs Monumental in matchday 14 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura in Argentine Liga Profesional.
Racing Defensive Record
Ahead of their visit to CA River Plate, Racing Club managed to keep only one clean sheet across their first 13 matches of the Torneo Clausura.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
