Aston Villa — Arsenal FC: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 35.1% |
| 12 | 79.1% | |
| X2 | 85.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.5% / 63.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.08.2026
Aston Villa
18th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Man City 2:1
- 15.05.2026 home Liverpool 4:2
- 10.05.2026 away Burnley 2:2
- 03.05.2026 home Tottenham 1:2
Arsenal FC
9th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:1
- 18.05.2026 home Burnley 1:0
- 10.05.2026 away West Ham 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Fulham 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 30.12.2025 Arsenal FC 4:1 Aston Villa
- 06.12.2025 Aston Villa 2:1 Arsenal FC
- 18.01.2025 Arsenal FC 2:2 Aston Villa
- 24.08.2024 Aston Villa 0:2 Arsenal FC
- 14.04.2024 Arsenal FC 0:2 Aston Villa
- 09.12.2023 Aston Villa 1:0 Arsenal FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aston Villa face Arsenal FC in an EPL meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The assessment points towards Arsenal FC being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level leaves room for a competitive contest rather than a one-sided expectation. Aston Villa will need to keep the match controlled and remain effective in the key moments to prevent Arsenal FC from turning that advantage into sustained pressure.
The projected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, with several plausible outcomes involving Arsenal FC scoring more than Aston Villa. However, whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so there is no strong indication that the match will follow one particular scoring script. Overall, the analysis favours Arsenal FC, while Aston Villa remain capable of keeping the margin close if they stay disciplined throughout the game.
What matters before kick-off
Team News
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta named an unchanged starting XI following their opening victory over Coventry City. Summer signings Bruno Guimaraes and Ezri Konsa were named among the substitutes.
João Gomes Suspended
Aston Villa midfielder João Gomes is suspended for the clash against Arsenal. The Brazilian received a red card in Villa's opening Premier League match.
Opening Match Results
Aston Villa opened their Premier League campaign with a 4-0 defeat away at Brighton. Arsenal started their title defense with a 3-0 home win over Coventry City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.