Argentinos Juniors — Independiente Rivadavia: Win probabilities, 27.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 27.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Banfield 1:0
- 11.10.2026 away Platense 1:1
- 04.10.2026 home Tigre 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away Rosario Central 0:1
- 13.09.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Tigre 2:2
- 11.10.2026 away Rosario Central 0:5
- 03.10.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:1
- 21.09.2026 away Barracas Central 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Aldosivi 4:3
This season: Argentinos Juniors at home vs Independiente Rivadavia away
| Metric | Argentinos Juniors · at home | Independiente Rivadavia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 17 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 11–6–0 | 5–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.35 | 0.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.53 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 43% |
Head-to-head · Last 5 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Independiente Rivadavia 3:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 30.08.2025 Independiente Rivadavia 2:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 24.02.2025 Argentinos Juniors 0:0 Independiente Rivadavia
- 03.12.2024 Independiente Rivadavia 2:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 20.02.2024 Argentinos Juniors 2:1 Independiente Rivadavia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Argentinos Juniors have a slight edge heading into their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with Independiente Rivadavia, primarily because of their strong home record this season. They have played 17 home matches, winning 11 and drawing six without suffering a defeat. Their defensive record at home has also been solid, with nine goals conceded across those games. Recent form has been reasonably consistent, with two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five matches, suggesting a team capable of maintaining a competitive level even when results are not decisive.
Independiente Rivadavia arrive with a similar recent record of two wins, two draws and one defeat, but their away performances have been less convincing. In 14 away matches this season, they have recorded five wins and five draws while losing four, conceding 17 goals. The head-to-head record offers them some encouragement: they have won three of the last five meetings, including a 3-1 victory over Argentinos Juniors in 2026. That history suggests the visitors should not be underestimated, although the hosts' home consistency remains the stronger indicator for this encounter.
A moderate-scoring match looks plausible, with a closely contested draw also a realistic possibility. Argentinos Juniors have the advantage in the overall balance, but Independiente Rivadavia have enough attacking potential to make this a competitive fixture.
What matters before kick-off
Final matchday 14 fixture
Argentinos Juniors and Independiente Rivadavia close out matchday 14 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.
Recent team results
Argentinos Juniors enter the fixture following a 1-0 win against Banfield, while Independiente Rivadavia recently drew 2-2 with Tigre.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.