Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 30.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.1% |
| 12 | 71.8% | |
| X2 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.9% / 48.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.2% / 53.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.10.2026
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
17th place · 34 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Coritiba 1:0
- 18.10.2026 home Cruzeiro 2:4
- 11.10.2026 home Internacional 1:1
- 07.10.2026 away Remo 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Palmeiras 0:0
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 54 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Vitoria 1:1
- 17.10.2026 home Palmeiras 0:2
- 12.10.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 4:1
- 09.10.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bahia 2:1
This season: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS at home vs CA Paranaense PR away
| Metric | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · at home | CA Paranaense PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 7–5–4 | 6–4–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 63% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 CA Paranaense PR 0:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 04.08.2024 CA Paranaense PR 0:2 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 17.04.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 18.10.2023 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:2 CA Paranaense PR
- 27.05.2023 CA Paranaense PR 1:2 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 26.09.2021 CA Paranaense PR 4:2 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS face CA Paranaense PR in a Brasileiro Serie A encounter that presents a contrast between league position and recent form. The hosts sit 17th with 34 points from 32 matches, making their overall league standing a concern. Their recent record shows one win, three draws and one defeat, with five goals scored and six conceded. However, their home performances offer a more encouraging picture: seven wins and five draws in 16 matches suggest they can compete effectively on familiar ground.
CA Paranaense PR arrive in a stronger position, sitting third with 54 points. Their last five matches have produced two wins, two draws and one loss, alongside nine goals scored, indicating a more productive attack than that of their opponents over the same period. Away from home, however, their record is balanced, with six wins and six defeats in 16 matches. This leaves room for Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS to make the contest competitive despite the difference in league standings.
The head-to-head record is relatively close, with Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS winning three of the last six meetings and CA Paranaense PR winning two. Their most recent encounter ended goalless in 2026. A moderately scoring contest appears plausible, with neither side holding a decisive advantage in this particular matchup.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.