Elche CF — FC Barcelona: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 26.4% |
| 12 | 83.8% | |
| X2 | 89.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Elche CF
11th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 away La Coruna 1:1
- 23.05.2026 away Girona 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Getafe 1:0
- 12.05.2026 away Betis 1:2
- 09.05.2026 home Alaves 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.05.2026 away Valencia 1:3
- 17.05.2026 home Betis 3:1
- 13.05.2026 away Alaves 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Real Madrid 2:0
- 02.05.2026 away Osasuna 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Elche CF 1:3 FC Barcelona
- 02.11.2025 FC Barcelona 3:1 Elche CF
- 01.04.2023 Elche CF 0:4 FC Barcelona
- 17.09.2022 FC Barcelona 3:0 Elche CF
- 06.03.2022 Elche CF 1:2 FC Barcelona
- 18.12.2021 FC Barcelona 3:2 Elche CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Elche CF face a difficult LaLiga assignment against FC Barcelona, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage and a high level of confidence behind that view. FC Barcelona are expected to control more of the match, apply sustained pressure, and create the stronger attacking opportunities. Elche CF will need to remain compact and disciplined while looking for moments to threaten in transition.
The overall scoring outlook points towards an open match rather than a cautious contest, with several goals considered likely. At the same time, whether both teams find the net is less certain, so the game could develop in more than one way. Elche CF may make the contest competitive if they defend efficiently and take their chances, but FC Barcelona's greater strength makes them the more convincing side in the overall assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Barcelona's season debut in LaLiga 2026/27
This match against Elche marks Barcelona's first official game of the new LaLiga season, as their matchday 1 fixture was postponed.
Barcelona's squad for the match against Elche
Head coach Hansi Flick named a 23-man squad for the away match against Elche as Barcelona begin their league campaign.
Elche's opening matchday result
Elche opened their league campaign with a 1-1 draw away against Deportivo La Coruña, with Marc Aguado scoring the equalizing goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.