St Mirren FC — St. Johnstone FC: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.2% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.6% / 74.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
St Mirren FC have a slight edge over St. Johnstone FC in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The home advantage gives St Mirren FC the more favourable starting position, but the assessment does not suggest a one-sided match.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with enough attacking potential for the game to develop beyond a cautious stalemate. Whether both teams find the net remains finely balanced, so neither side has a clearly defined advantage in that area. St. Johnstone FC should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match close and make the most of their opportunities. Overall, the clearest angle is support for St Mirren FC or the draw, with a narrow home victory and an even result both consistent with the available indicators.
What matters before kick-off
First home league fixture
The Scottish Premiership encounter against St Johnstone on August 8, 2026, marks St Mirren's first home league match of the 2026/27 season.
St Johnstone's top-flight return
St Johnstone earned promotion back to the Scottish Premiership after winning the 2025/26 Scottish Championship title.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.