Kilmarnock FC — Celtic Glasgow: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 25.2% |
| 12 | 84.1% | |
| X2 | 90.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Kilmarnock FC face a difficult assignment against Celtic Glasgow, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear edge. The confidence in that reading is high, suggesting Celtic Glasgow should control more of the match and create the stronger attacking situations. Kilmarnock FC will need to remain organised without the ball and make good use of their opportunities when they arise.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than a tightly contained rhythm. However, whether both teams score is finely balanced, so Kilmarnock FC’s attacking contribution remains one of the main uncertainties. The most plausible scorelines point towards a Celtic Glasgow victory, with 0:2, 0:3 and 1:2 all fitting the overall outlook. Celtic Glasgow therefore appear better placed, while the home side’s prospects depend on resisting sustained pressure and taking advantage of any spaces left in transition.
What matters before kick-off
Celtic Squad Availability
Celtic defender Liam Scales is ruled out of the match against Kilmarnock due to a domestic suspension. Additionally, winger Jota and striker Johnny Kenny remain sidelined with injuries.
Martin O'Neill Misses Match from Dugout
Celtic manager Martin O'Neill is absent from the touchline for the Kilmarnock clash while recovering from a minor medical procedure. Assistant manager Shaun Maloney takes charge from the sidelines.
Opening Matchday Results
Celtic opened their Scottish Premiership campaign with a 1-0 victory against Dundee. Kilmarnock started their season with a high-scoring 4-3 defeat away at St Johnstone.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.