Boca Juniors — Union de Santa Fe: Win probabilities, 03.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.6% / 26.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away San Lorenzo 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Central Cordoba 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Lanus 1:0
- 24.08.2026 away Racing Club 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Independiente 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Instituto 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 4:1
- 21.08.2026 away Aldosivi 3:1
This season: Boca Juniors at home vs Union de Santa Fe away
| Metric | Boca Juniors · at home | Union de Santa Fe · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 6–7–0 | 4–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.15 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.46 | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.03.2026 Union de Santa Fe 1:1 Boca Juniors
- 18.07.2025 Boca Juniors 1:1 Union de Santa Fe
- 29.01.2025 Union de Santa Fe 1:1 Boca Juniors
- 21.11.2024 Boca Juniors 1:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 06.03.2024 Union de Santa Fe 1:0 Boca Juniors
- 21.10.2023 Boca Juniors 2:1 Union de Santa Fe
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Boca Juniors enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a clear qualitative advantage over Union de Santa Fe. The assessment points to the hosts as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this edge should be viewed with some caution rather than as a definitive prediction. The attacking outlook is rated as medium-scoring.
Union de Santa Fe still have a path into the game, particularly because the assessment does not strongly favor one outcome for both teams finding the net. The scoring expectation therefore leaves room for a competitive match despite Boca Juniors having the stronger overall signal. The most plausible scorelines listed are 2:0, 1:0, and 1:1, reflecting a range from a controlled home victory to a closely contested draw. Overall, the balance favors Boca Juniors, with a measured rather than overwhelming level of confidence.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 11 of Torneo Clausura
Boca Juniors host Unión de Santa Fe at La Bombonera for round 11 of the 2026 Argentine Torneo Clausura.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.