Atletico Tucuman — CA Barracas Central: Win probabilities, 03.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.5% |
| 12 | 69.0% | |
| X2 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 64.4% / 35.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 35.4% / 64.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 16.4% / 83.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.1% / 97.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.09.2026 away Aldosivi 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home River Plate 1:2
- 07.09.2026 away Racing Club 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Belgrano 0:0
- 22.08.2026 home Instituto 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.09.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 0:1
- 14.09.2026 away Banfield 1:1
- 07.09.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 0:0
- 01.09.2026 away Tigre 0:0
- 23.08.2026 home Platense 1:2
This season: Atletico Tucuman at home vs CA Barracas Central away
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman · at home | CA Barracas Central · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 2–8–3 | 4–6–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.03.2026 CA Barracas Central 2:1 Atletico Tucuman
- 29.07.2024 CA Barracas Central 0:2 Atletico Tucuman
- 12.02.2024 CA Barracas Central 2:0 Atletico Tucuman
- 16.09.2023 Atletico Tucuman 1:0 CA Barracas Central
- 19.03.2023 Atletico Tucuman 1:1 CA Barracas Central
- 24.08.2022 Atletico Tucuman 4:0 CA Barracas Central
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Tucuman go into this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a slight edge over CA Barracas Central. The assessment points to a high level of confidence in the home side, although the matchup still suggests a relatively balanced contest rather than a decisive advantage. The main signal favors Atletico Tucuman avoiding defeat, with the home side having the clearer position in the overall assessment.
The expected character of the match is cautious and low-scoring. A clean sheet is considered likely, which points toward limited attacking output from at least one side. The most plausible scorelines listed are 1:0, 0:0, and 1:1, all consistent with a game where small moments could have a significant influence on the outcome. Atletico Tucuman therefore have the stronger lean, while CA Barracas Central remain capable of keeping the contest close. The match is scheduled for October 3, 2026, at 20:00 UTC.
What matters before kick-off
Recent team results
Heading into matchday 11 of the Torneo Clausura, Atlético Tucumán lost 1-0 away against Aldosivi in their previous game. Barracas Central also suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Independiente Rivadavia.
Away head-to-head history
Barracas Central have never won an away match against Atlético Tucumán in San Miguel de Tucumán, recording one draw and two losses in three previous visits to the Estadio José Fierro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.