Valencia CF — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.8% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.4% / 22.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.80 → now 2.63 |
| W2 | was 2.50 → now 2.63 |
Match preview
Valencia CF face Real Sociedad San Sebastian in a LaLiga contest that appears finely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched encounter, with only moderate confidence in the overall reading. Neither side is given a clear superiority, so the match may depend on small tactical details and how effectively each team handles the key phases of play.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. That combination supports a competitive game in which neither defence is expected to dominate completely. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, reflecting the narrow separation between the teams. The market signal gives some protection to Real Sociedad San Sebastian through the draw-or-away perspective, but it does not remove the possibility of a Valencia CF victory. Overall, this looks like a close fixture with opportunities at both ends and a result that could remain uncertain until late in the match.
What matters before kick-off
Managerial change at Valencia
On 13 September 2026, Valencia dismissed head coach Carlos Corberan following a poor start to the LaLiga season. Reserve team coach Oscar Sanchez was appointed as interim head coach ahead of the Real Sociedad clash.
Valencia's first victory of the season
On 15 September 2026, Valencia secured their first LaLiga victory of the season by defeating Deportivo Alaves 1-0 following a goal from Luis Rioja.
Commemorative poster for the Mestalla fixture
For the fixture against Real Sociedad, Valencia presented a commemorative poster in the 'Mestalla és Etern' collection, drawing inspiration from the 1940s squad when a large portion of the team hailed from the Basque Country.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.