RC Celta de Vigo — Racing Santander: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.8% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.0% / 19.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.10 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
RC Celta de Vigo go into this LaLiga meeting with a slight but credible edge over Racing Santander. The assessment points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the home side better placed to control the overall outcome. At the same time, the balance is not strong enough to rule out a draw, making home protection in the result market a relevant consideration.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests Racing Santander should have opportunities even if RC Celta de Vigo remain the more convincing side on the overall reading. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1 and 2:1, with 2:0 also within the range of likely outcomes. Overall, the hosts hold the clearer advantage, but the visitors retain enough attacking potential to keep the match open.
What matters before kick-off
Celta Vigo team news
Celta manager Claudio Giráldez confirmed that Iago Aspas, Yoel Antañón, and Jones El-Abdellaoui are sidelined through injury, while Borja Iglesias is only fit for a maximum of 45 minutes.
Racing Santander team news
André Almeida returns to the Racing Santander squad following a suspension, while Simon Eriksson and Andrés Martín remain unavailable due to injuries.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.