CR Flamengo RJ — Red Bull Bragantino SP: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.1% |
| 12 | 83.9% | |
| X2 | 25.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.4% / 35.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.3% / 57.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.36 → now 1.30 |
| X | was 4.75 → now 5.25 |
| W2 | was 8.50 → now 9.00 |
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a clear advantage in the pre-match assessment, although the confidence level is moderate rather than absolute. The home side is rated as clearly stronger than Red Bull Bragantino SP, making a home win the main scenario under consideration. That edge should shape the match, particularly if CR Flamengo RJ can impose the expected attacking tempo from the outset.
The overall projection points toward a high-scoring contest, but the outlook on both teams finding the net is balanced. In other words, goals are expected to be a notable feature, while it remains uncertain whether Red Bull Bragantino SP will contribute to the scoresheet. The most prominent projected results are 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0, all of which keep CR Flamengo RJ ahead. Red Bull Bragantino SP therefore face a demanding task, with the match likely to depend on whether they can contain the hosts without leaving space for further attacking opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Flamengo team news
Flamengo will be without suspended players Erick Pulgar, Lucas Paquetá, and Samuel Lino for the match against Red Bull Bragantino, while Evertton Araújo is ruled out with a thigh injury.
Flamengo's league stats
Ahead of Round 28 in the Brasileirão, league leaders Flamengo boast the competition's most prolific attack with 53 goals scored and the highest goal difference (+31).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.