CA Paranaense PR — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.5% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.2% / 7.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.20 → now 2.35 |
| W2 | was 3.40 → now 3.10 |
Match preview
CA Paranaense PR have a slight edge over EC Bahia BA in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear gap between the sides. The available assessment supports a cautious preference for the hosts, with the possibility of a draw still prominent.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. That points toward an open but balanced game in which neither side should be expected to control the entire contest. A 1-1 draw is among the plausible scorelines, while a narrow 2-1 home win also fits the overall picture. A goalless draw remains another possible outcome, reinforcing the view that CA Paranaense PR hold only a limited advantage over EC Bahia BA.
What matters before kick-off
Previous round results
In round 27 of the Brasileirão, Athletico Paranaense played out a 3-3 draw against Coritiba, while Bahia secured a 2-1 home victory over Remo.
League standings context
Ahead of their match in round 28, Athletico Paranaense and Bahia are level on 46 points from 27 matches, holding third and fourth place in Serie A respectively.
Bahia's unbeaten streak
Bahia enter the match on an 11-game unbeaten streak in the Brasileirão, having won each of their last four league matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.