CA Osasuna — Rayo Vallecano: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.1% / 23.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 2.88 → now 2.75 |
Match preview
CA Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano meet in LaLiga in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear advantage, while Rayo Vallecano remain close enough in the overall outlook to make the result difficult to separate. Confidence is moderate, so the most reasonable reading is a balanced match rather than one dominated by either side.
The game is projected to sit around a medium-scoring level, with both teams scoring viewed as an open question. A draw such as 1:1 is among the plausible scorelines, although a narrow CA Osasuna victory, including 1:0 or 2:1, is also consistent with the assessment. The 1X signal points toward avoiding an away-win expectation, but it does not remove the possibility of a competitive and closely contested encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Osasuna squad news
CA Osasuna remain without Jorge Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Moi Gómez due to injury.
Recent league results
CA Osasuna enter the fixture following a 4-0 away defeat to Atlético Madrid, while Rayo Vallecano won 2-1 against Espanyol in their previous LaLiga match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.